The truth behind the new AFL wildcard finals system and how many wins you'll need to make the top 10
The New Wild Card System: A Game-Changer?
Let's face it, the term 'wild card' in sports can be a bit misleading. In tennis, it refers to players invited to tournaments who wouldn't or couldn't qualify otherwise. In American sports, it's about post-season qualifiers who didn't win their division or conference. But in the AFL, the term takes on a new meaning with the introduction of the wildcard finals system.
A New Top 10
The AFL has simplified its finals system, now focusing on a top 10. Before the regular finals begin, the 7th and 8th-placed teams will face off, followed by the 9th and 10th-placed teams. This system aims to add excitement and unpredictability to the season, but it also raises questions about the impact on team performance and the likelihood of certain teams making the finals.
Impact on the Season
The wildcard system has a significant impact on the season, making it less likely for the 7th and 8th-placed teams to win the premiership. While this might be a disappointment for some, it opens up opportunities for other teams to make the finals deeper into the season, even if they're not the strongest. It also adds two more finals to the schedule, providing more excitement for fans.
The Odds Stack Against You
The odds are stacked against teams finishing 9th or 10th, with a flag win occurring roughly once per century. This statistic highlights the challenge of making the top 10, especially for the lower-ranked teams.
The New Norm
As the league expands to 20 teams, the wildcard system will become more manageable, aligning with the modern norm of half the competition playing in the finals. This expansion will help balance the competition and provide a more consistent finals system.
Understanding the New Benchmark
Historically, 12 wins were needed to make the top eight in a 22-game season. However, with the introduction of an extra 23rd game and the top 10 system, a new benchmark is required. Teams now need around 11 wins to make the top 10 as a wildcard finalist, with more than 11 wins almost always securing a spot.
Historical Data Analysis
Analyzing 13 seasons of data since the AFL expanded to 18 teams, it's clear that 13 wins are needed to make the top eight, while the average 10th-place finisher won just under 11.5 games. Teams with 11 wins have a good chance of making the top 10, while more than 11 wins are almost always sufficient.
Projected Outcomes
According to Wheelo Ratings' simulations, a team winning 14 games in the 2026 season has a 57.8% chance of making the top six and a 42.1% chance of being a wildcard team. Winning 13 games provides a minor hope of sneaking into the top six, while 11 wins are likely but not certain to secure a top 10 spot.
The New Rule of Thumb
The historical data and projections suggest that 11 wins are the new benchmark for making the top 10. This is roughly equivalent to the previous 12 wins needed in a 22-game season. Teams with 14 wins are more likely to make the top six and avoid the wildcard final, with 15 wins providing a secure position.
The Bottom Line
In summary, the new wildcard finals system in the AFL requires teams to aim for around 11 wins to secure a spot in the top 10. While this system adds an element of unpredictability, it also highlights the importance of consistent performance and the need for teams to strive for excellence to avoid the wildcard round.
