SpaceX and China's dominance in orbital launches has set a new record in 2025, but the future of the industry may depend on shifting dynamics. According to SpaceNews analysis, there were 324 orbital launch attempts worldwide in 2025, a 25% increase from the previous year's record. This surge is primarily attributed to SpaceX and Chinese launch providers. SpaceX's Falcon 9 missions soared to 165 in 2025, surpassing the rest of the world combined. China conducted 92 orbital launches, showcasing its growing capabilities. The U.S. contributed 193 orbital launch attempts, with Rocket Lab's Electron launches from New Zealand. Together, the U.S. and China dominated 88% of global orbital launches. However, the future may see a shift. SpaceX's Stephanie Bednarek predicts a peak in Falcon 9 launches in 2025-2026, after which SpaceX plans to transition to Starship for Starlink deployments. While Chinese launch activity is expected to grow in 2026, the success of new rockets like Rocket Lab's Neutron and Rocket Factory Augsburg's RFA One remains uncertain. The industry's future may depend on these transitions and the emergence of new players.
